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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.